The Observer reports that The Department of Energy and Climate Change has held talks on 'peak oil', which reached the conclusion that ...
... the "International Energy Agency is an authoritative source in this field" and stresses how the IEA believes there is sufficient reserves to meet demand till 2030 as long as investment in new reserves is maintained ...
In pursuit of 'investment in new reserves' BP-Transocean caused a catastrophic oil 'spill' in the Gulf of Mexico,
[DH], Cairn Energy is exploring for oil off the west coast of Greenland, [TTA],
BP is undertaking an more even more risky venture in the Beaufort Sea, [TTA],
whilst its activities off the Libyan coast became ensnared in the controversy about the release of Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al Megrahi.
[BP]
A report from Uppsala University disputes the IEA's 'belief' that peak oil is
twenty years away, claiming the by 2030:
... our scientifically-based calculations show that production of oil will be 25 million barrels per day lower than stated ...
The IEA's figures were also disputed by a whistleblower from within the organisation ...
The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying ...
"The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry.
"The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this ... "
Given that (a) peak oil will occur before 2030 - and may have already started - and (b) oil is a significant contributer to rising CO2 emissions, then governments and businesses inhabiting the real world might draw the conclusion that it's imperative to search for sustainable substitutes; indeed the resources being invested 'in new reserves' might be better diverted to the development of alternatives.
A 'Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis'
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The Busby ReportThe Oil Depletion ProtocolThe Oil Drum |
Iran Set to Turn Off Oil Supply to Europe
Many members of the EU are now heavily dependent on Iranian oil.
Some 500,000 barrels arrive in Europe every day from Iran, with southern European countries consuming most of it.
Greece is the most exposed, receiving a third of all its oil imports from Iran, but Italy too depends on Iran for 13 percent of its oil needs.
If this source were to dry up abruptly, the economic conditions in the two struggling countries could become even worse.
Already on Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned of the economic consequences of the EU's planned embargo.
Stopping deliveries from the world's fifth largest producer could drive up the price of oil by 20 to 30 percent ...
Der Spiegel 26 Jan 2012 Iran The Merkozy Plan War on Terror Log
UK 'extraordinarily naive' over Canada's tar sands lobbying
As growth is the only show in town, and supporting the banks is the only perceived route to growth, it follows that the massive damage done to the eco-system by projects - like extracting oil from tar sands - is a price worth paying for keeping the show on the road. And when the tar sands run out? ... Well, that's someone else's problem, and as they are very young (or as yet unborn), we can't ask them for an opinion.
The UK government has been accused of being "extraordinarily naive" over tar sands information given to it by Canadian diplomats as part of a lobbying campaign, but which has since been contradicted.
Chris Davies, the MEP who is the Liberal Democrat environment spokesman in the European parliament, told me:
"It is extraordinarily naive for ministers and officials to take the special pleading by Canada as though it were gospel truth, rather than what it is - an attempt to protect narrow financial interests." ...
Oil giant BP, which has significant tar sands interests, told [Norman] Baker ...
"The regulatory burden would be considerable at a time when the industry is already creaking under the weight of a heavy regulatory regime." ...
Gdn 06 Dec 2011 Athabasca Tar Sands Eating the Future
Trashing the EnvironmentUK secretly helping Canada push its oil sands project
Britain's promotion of Canada's tar sands oil is idiotic
Oil Sands
George Osborne slams 'costly' green policies
The naked short-termism of the coalition's policies is confirmed.
In a clear attempt to redirect the coalition's green policies, the chancellor told parliament:
The future is to be placed in jeopardy by their lock-in to free market dogma
"I am worried about the combined impact of the green policies adopted not just in Britain, but also by the European Union if we burden [British businesses] with endless social and environmental goals however worthy in their own right then not only will we not achieve those goals, but the businesses will fail, jobs will be lost, and our country will be poorer."
Osborne gave £250m worth of assistance and rebates to the most energy-intensive companies, scrapped a planned rise in fuel duty, announced a massive road-building scheme and hinted at a watering down of regulations to protect British wildlife.
Environmentalists may have gained some cheer though from the promise of £1.4bn for new railways and rail improvements ...
But his statement was notably light on references to the green economy or the job-creating potential of industries such as renewable power ...
Gdn 29 Nov 2011 Autumn Statement Coalition Log Is the coalition eco-friendly?
"We must end our oil dependency"Huhne insists carbon reduction strategy is 'on track'
Osborne tears up key countryside protection and green energy project
'Our Lifestyle Has Revolved Around a Dangerous Egotism'
Is Germany Headed for a Power Blackout?
SPIEGEL: Do you sometimes have nightmares that you are burdening industry and the German people with billions in expenses, but it turns out climate research was wrong all along with all its doomsday scenarios?
Rφttgen: High-ranking Chinese colleagues have removed any fears that I may have had about being entirely wrong.
Even if there was no climate change whatsoever, they told me that they would still invest in renewable sources of energy, efficient technologies and electric cars.
It makes economic sense for them to invest in a future that doesn't rely on burning oil, coal and natural gas -- also because it's important for them to remain competitive with high-tech countries like Germany ...
Der Spiegel 28 Nov 2011 China Durban COP17 Eating the Future LogClimate Change
Energy & Natural Resources
Liberal Democrats fight benefits cut to fund freeze in fuel duty
The itch to take a short-term populist measure subordinates any signal to the market that gas-guzzlers are anti-social
Liberal Democrat cabinet members are fighting a rearguard action to prevent the Treasury pressing ahead with plans to withhold some benefit increases for the unemployed to fund a delay in the planned 3p rise in fuel duty due in January ...
The lower than inflation benefit rises would save the government £1bn against what had been expected by the Office of Budget Responsibility.
That sum roughly matches the sum needed to fund a freeze in fuel duty ...
... some Lib Dems including the business secretary, Vince Cable were wavering over the issue ...
Gdn 18 Nov 2011 Coalition Log IDS: Welfare Reform Is the coalition eco-friendly? Third Meltdown LogUK facing 1970s-style oil shock
Motorists warned cost of tank of petrol 'to hit £100' by 2015
Struggling families were told to brace to expect the average cost of unleaded petrol to rise from an average of £1.34.8 today to £1.54 within four years.
Experts said this would the cost of filling up a Ford Mondeo, which has a 70-litre tank, will rise from just over £93 to nearly £108.
After a brief respite, fuel costs will rise again within a few months amid surging demand from booming Asia economies, which are expected to trigger a boom in oil markets, according to forecasters at the Ernst & Young ITEM Club ...
Tel 07 Nov 2011 China Falling Living Standards Global Risks 2012
Why are oil prices so high?
Brent blend ... on Thursday was cruising along on not far short of $110 per barrel. This is historically a very strong price which puts 2011 on course for the highest year-average oil price on record ...
Oil demand in China now the world's biggest importer is expected to grow by 6% in 2012 at a time when oil companies such as ExxonMobil and Shell are struggling against falling production levels ...
Gdn 03 Nov 2011 Eating the Future LogBusiness blog + Oil
Commodities
An alarming environmental risk
BP's "environmental impact assessment" makes sobering reading. According to the company's own analysis, the well it proposes to drill in the sea off the Shetland Islands has the potential to unleash the world's biggest ever oil spill.
It is the comparisons with last year's Deepwater Horizon disaster that throw BP's worst-case scenario for North Uist into the sharpest relief. The damaged wellhead at the Macondo prospect disgorged 5 million barrels-worth of oil, polluting tens of thousands of square miles of the Gulf of Mexico, damaging more than 300 miles of the Louisiana coastline, and devastating local fishing and tourism industries.
Hampered by the depth of the water, engineers struggled for nearly three months before they succeeded in shutting it down. But a similar problem at North Uist where the water is just as deep and often stormier could make Deepwater Horizon look easy.
Ind 12 Oct 2011 Eating the Future Log
Trashing the Environment
Ministers to consult on 80mph motorway speed limit
If Mr Hammond thinks about it at all, he is probably a peak oil denier. If his Department were realistic, speed limits would be reduced to 55 mph in the interests of conserving oil, and cutting C02 emissions.
Transport Secretary Philip Hammond said the current limit, introduced in 1965, was out of date due to "huge advances in safety and motoring technology".
The consultation begins this year with a view to raising the limit in 2013.
The Department for Transport says as many as 49% of drivers flout the current 70mph limit.
It says advances in technology have made cars much safer, contributing to a drop of more than 75% in the number of people killed on British roads since the 70mph limit was introduced ...
BBC NEWS 29 Sept 2011 Eating the Future Log Is the Coalition eco-friendly Third Meltdown Log
Pipeline Spills Put Safeguards Under Scrutiny
This summer, an Exxon Mobil pipeline carrying oil across Montana burst suddenly, soiling the swollen Yellowstone River with an estimated 42,000 gallons of crude just weeks after a company inspection and federal review had found nothing seriously wrong.
And in the Midwest, a 35-mile stretch of the Kalamazoo River near Marshall, Mich., once teeming with swimmers and boaters, remains closed nearly 14 months after an Enbridge Energy pipeline hemorrhaged 843,000 gallons of oil that will cost more than $500 million to clean up.
While investigators have yet to determine the cause of either accident, the spills have drawn attention to oversight of the 167,000-mile system of hazardous liquid pipelines crisscrossing the nation.
The little-known federal agency charged with monitoring the system and enforcing safety measures the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration is chronically short of inspectors and lacks the resources needed to hire more, leaving too much of the regulatory control in the hands of pipeline operators themselves ...
NYT 09 Sept 2011 Corporate Sociopathy Log Contesting the Markets Log
Trashing Democracy, Society, Environment
Oil exploration under Arctic ice could cause 'uncontrollable' natural disaster
The area north of the Arctic Circle is thought to contain as much as 160 billion barrels of oil, more than a quarter of the world's undiscovered reserves.
Some of it is under land ... but large amounts of it are known to lie under the seabeds of the Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay off Greenland, which are ice-covered for all or part of the year, depending on the region.
It is this offshore oil which is now the focus of a new exploration rush ...
Professor Peter Wadhams, of Cambridge University ... oceanographer and glaciologist ... (is) ... one of the world's leading experts on polar ice ...
His concern about how sea ice will interact with oil from a spill as the Arctic is opened up for drilling is so great that he has helped to convene an international high-level academic seminar to discuss Oil Spills in Sea Ice and Future at Italy's Polar Geographical Institute in Fermo, Italy, from 20-23 September.
Ind 06 Sept 2011 Eating the Future Trashing the Arctic
Exxon Wins Prized Access to Arctic With Russia Deal
The deal announced Tuesday replaces BP, the British oil giant, with its American counterpart and introduces some differences in the geopolitical bargain.
Where BP had swapped stock, Exxon agrees to hand over to Rosneft unspecified assets elsewhere in the world, including some that the Texas-based company owns in the deepwater zones of the Gulf of Mexico and onshore in Texas.
It was not immediately clear whether Rosneft would gain operational control of any Texas or Gulf of Mexico sites or merely obtain a portion of the equity in the projects.
Either way, Exxons concessions in the agreement further a long-held goal of the Russian petroleum industry to diversify internationally, using access to reserves at home as leverage to win the capital and technological expertise to do so ...
A fact sheet released by the companies suggested an initial commitment to invest $3.2 billion in exploration in the Kara Sea, the body of water between the northern coast of European Russia and the Novaya Zemlya island chain.
Once seen as a useless, ice-clogged backwater, it became the focus of attention by oil companies in part because the sea ice is believed to be receding with global warming, easing exploration and drilling ...
NYT 30 Aug 2011 Eating the Future Log Trashing the Arctic
Carmakers and White House Haggling Over Mileage Rules
The administration is proposing regulations that will require new American cars and trucks to attain an average of as much as 56.2 miles per gallon by 2025, roughly double the current level.
That would require increases in fuel efficiency of nearly 5 percent a year from 2017 to 2025.
The standard would put domestic vehicle fuel efficiency on a par with that in Europe, China and Japan, saving consumers billions of dollars at the pump and creating for the first time a truly global automobile market.
The automakers say the standard is technically achievable. But they warn that it will cost billions of dollars to develop the vehicles, and they express doubt that consumers will accept the smaller, lighter and in some cases, more expensive cars that result ...
NYT 03 July Eating the Future Log
It has been difficult for Japan's notoriously efficient industries to maintain production, given that they rely on just-in-time systems and which have supply plants (for needed parts) that are located in the zone impacted by these combined disasters.What Japan's disaster tells us about peak oil
One example is in car production, where major firms have had to suspend work at their factories when key parts are no longer available from the affected region.
The fragility of this system of industrial production is glaringly obvious and it is something that peak oil commentators have warned of multiple times.
These food and bottled water shortages, power cuts, fuel-rationing and breakdowns in just-in-time manufacturing have been anticipated by those who take peak oil seriously.
It is almost as if eastern Japan is experiencing a peak oil rehearsal, although other regions of Japan are virtually unaffected.
If proponents of peak oil are correct, then the rest of the world may experience something similar within the next 5 to 10 years, and hence it is important that we learn valuable lessons from Japan's response to the current circumstances ...
Under the present situation, Japan can still rely on imports to alleviate food supply problems.
This is fortunate as over 600 farms, 125 harbours and 2,333 fishing vessels were destroyed by the tsunami, not to mention the thousands of people who made their livelihoods from agriculture and fishing who are either deceased or displaced ...
... conflict and civil unrest in oil producing countries is another facet of various peak oil scenarios as nations scramble for the remaining resources.
It is something that Richard Heinberg describes as the "last one standing" scenario in which powerful countries will use their assets to promote their own survival at the expense of everyone else ...
Guardian 04 Apr 2011 Peak Oil Apocalypse Soon Localise NowSoaring oil prices 'could put the brakes on UK's manufacturing boom'
Oil price hits two and a half year high
Just-in-time
Peak Oil Primer
In the dark over oil reserves
Heinberg's "Last Man Standing" Hypothesis
Oil exploration: not a price worth paying
... easy oil is not the answer. Environmental disasters, and political crises like the one playing out in Libya, only remind us of the environmental reality that future world energy needs must be sought in renewable and sustainable sources.
Green campaigners in Australia, and the local state government there, will now engage in a prolonged campaign to fight the Shell plan. But they should not have to.
The big oil companies should be applying themselves to the search for scaled-up and viable energy solutions before climate change forces them upon us.
Oil spills like Deepwater Horizon are not a price worth paying.
They are an indication of a short-termist, morally bankrupt approach to supplying the energy the world needs.
Independent 09 Mar 2011 Amazon's ChernobylShell oil exploration threatens one of the world's great wonders
US judge halts damages claim over pollution in Amazon
Soaring petrol prices push commuting costs higher than mortgages
King says living standards may never recover
Urgent steps needed to wean UK onto other energy sources
We must end our oil dependency, says chancellor
World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected
Our only hope lies in forging a new energy world order
Dick Cheney on Peak Oil
In recent days forecourt prices have risen steadily and the average price of unleaded petrol is now 130.9p a litre, with diesel averaging 136.38p.Soaring petrol prices push commuting costs higher than mortgages
However, in many areas of the country motorists have been paying significantly more.
Peter Carroll, a Fair Fuel UK spokesman, who delivered a 120,000-signature petition to Downing Street last week, said:
"My reaction to these prices is one of horror, of what it will do to the economy, what it will do to people and what it will do to business. They will be crushed by this.
"There is a very real risk that the economy will be pushed into depression. Every day we are being sent stories from people really struggling: carers who can't afford to fill their cars. This is nothing short of a crisis, the chancellor needs to act and fast," he said.
The AA said yesterday that it expects the average price of unleaded petrol to push through the £6-a-gallon barrier this week at about £1.32 a litre ...
Guardian 07 Mar 2011 Peak Oil
Apocalypse SoonFair Fuel UK
Urgent steps needed to wean UK onto other energy sources
The energy secretary, Chris Huhne, told the Observer that the UK had no option but to speed up efforts to move away from oil.Urgent steps needed to wean UK onto other energy sources
The Carbon Plan
"Getting off the oil hook is made all the more urgent by the crisis in the Middle East. We cannot afford to go on relying on such a volatile source of energy when we can have clean, green and secure energy from low-carbon sources," he said.
"The carbon plan is about ensuring that the whole of government is engaged in a joined-up effort to lead us into a low-carbon world." ...
Guardian 05 Mar 2011Gloomy Malthus provides food for thought ...
We must end our oil dependency, says chancellor
World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected
Labour's carbon targets amount to a cop-out
Our only hope lies in forging a new energy world order
Dick Cheney on Peak Oil
Market turmoil as IEA warns 'age of cheap oil is over'
... the chief economist of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, warned that the world may have to face up to the prospect of high oil prices over the long term. "The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower international prices than would otherwise be the case," he said.
Mr Birol also struck a note of caution on Europe's recovery prospects as the continent deals with increased fuel costs. "Europe is the weakest link in the chain of economic recovery," he said. "75 per cent of gas prices [in Europe] are linked to oil prices. In a few months gas prices are going to increase." ...
Independent 03 Mar 2011 Apocalypse Soon Global Risks Peak OilUK facing 1970s-style oil shock which could cost economy £45bn
Thursday's keynote speech ... is an attempt to galvanise public support for tough measures to create a green economy, after recent setbacks including attacks on the science of climate change and stalled international negotiations ...UK facing 1970s-style oil shock ... Huhne
Drawing on research conducted for the previous government by Lord Stern, Huhne argued that a $100 a barrel price is the exact point at which the economics of climate change pivot so that it becomes cheaper for British consumers and businesses to invest in green technology than remain with the status quo ...
This is the moment to invest in green infrastructure, homes and transport, according to Huhne ...
Guardian 03 Mar 2011 Energy Policy Peak Oil2011 is 'pivotal' year for UK energy market