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Cohousing

House Prices
Mortgage Arrears
'Taking Stock'

Ponzi Housing Market: A Thatcherite Legacy

Latest Report

Housing Benefit 'Reform

The Depression of 2010
Archive of earlier reports

The Return of the Ponzi Housing Market

The BBC's report is in line with received wisdom: inflation bad, house price inflation good.

The multiple damage inflicted on both first time buyers, and on the wider economy gets zero consideration.

Like any other Ponzi scheme, those at the bottom of the housing pyramid are most likely to get hurt; added to which is the wider consideration of how money sucked into this scheme might have benefitted the real economy had it in been invested in businesses and jobs outside financial services and construction.

Worse, in her desire to eradicate council housing, Margaret Thatcher gave tax breaks to home buyers, a perverse incentive which further distorted the market, and further downgraded the rental sector.

Our own experience - 1969 to 1994 - illustrates my point.

  • March 1969. We bought a 3-bed semi-detached dormer bungalow for £3,050
  • September 1981. We bought a 3-bed detached dormer bungalow for £26,000
  • April 1994. We bought a 2/3-bed detached bungalow for £70,000

A comparison of housing costs with the concurrent RPI and Average Earnings can be calculated using the website Measuring Worth:

Year
Cost of House
Retail price Index
Average Earnings
1969
3,050
n/a
n/a
1981
26,000
13,093
15,432
1994
70,000
50,095
65,539
2009
212,000 (*)
104,344
122,231

(*) This figure is based on a local search of comparable 2-bed bungalows

The case for local taxes based on either the direct worth of the house, or a land tax, would have the merit of more closely relating tax to value. Additionally, capital gains tax charged on the difference between RPI/AE and actual sale price might have the effect of dampening down house price inflation.




Councils fail to spend £1m earmarked for ... homelessness

Figures show that nearly £1m of the £20m set aside to help families who could not afford rent or other housing costs in 2010-11 was left untouched by councils.

Six local authorities spent less than half the money they were allocated for these "discretionary housing payments" by the Department for Work and Pensions.

They include Wirral council, which spent just £114,380 (47%) of the £245,200 the government had earmarked for the borough.

In total, £990,272 remained unclaimed in England, Scotland and Wales.

Yet some councils made the decision to top up the money they received from the DWP from their own coffers, taking the total awarded to £21.4m ...

Gdn  01 Feb 2012

Nurses face eviction from staff housing

According to the Royal College of Nursing ... nurses are often facing serious financial hardship as they struggle to meet their housing costs.

"We have been taking up an increasing number of cases of debt and financial problems as a direct result of housing taking up such a large part of nurses' salaries," says Claire Cannings, senior welfare adviser at the RCN.

"Increasingly, we are seeing nurses spending over 50% of their salary just on accommodation, especially in London and the south-east." ...

Research by the housing charity Shelter has shown that private rents are already unaffordable to those on average incomes in 55% of local authority areas.

Closing down more NHS accommodation will add to the pressure, claims Shelter's head of policy, Toby Lloyd.

"Pushing more people into the [private] sector can only increase competition for homes and drive up rents further, especially in high-value areas like inner London," he says.

"If we want people to work night shifts for modest wages in London's hospitals they have to be able to live nearby in homes that are affordable for them.

"Selling off NHS homes might raise money in the short term but it will ultimately increase the pressure on NHS wages, or lead to staff shortages." ...

Gdn  31 Jan 2012    A 'modern and compassionate party'    Housing Benefit Reform    Ponzi Housing Market

Top


Families forced to rent whose children pay the price

... figures from the English Housing Survey ... (show) ... that families with children living in the private rental sector are 10 times more likely to move than those who own their own home.

In 2009-10, 30% or 310,000 of the 1 million families in the private rental sector moved.

In comparison just 3% or 122,000 out of 3.8 million property owning families moved.

Those living in the private rental sector were also less settled than those in social housing: 66% of private renters moved in the last three years compared with 23% of social renters.

The charity would like the government to construct a private rental model based on those in Europe, where notice periods and tenancies are longer ...

Campbell Robb, chief executive of Shelter, says:

"With the doors to home ownership or social housing firmly closed for many, the number of families who are privately renting has increased by almost 80% in the last two years. But there's mounting evidence that private renting is failing to provide the stability that children desperately need." ...

The problem is acute in central London.

Emily Norman, headteacher at the St Matthew's CE primary school in Westminster, says 35% of the school's pupils leave every year because of relocation ...

Gdn  21 Jan 2012    Has the Coalition abandoned Children?    Third Meltdown Log    
English Housing Survey
Assured Shorthold Tenancies
Shelter

Top


State to help elderly downsize as Government tackles housing crisis

It's not yet possible to force the elderly to move out of their homes, just as not yet possible to kill everyone on their 65th birthday, desirable though the latter objective would be to the current generation of social Darwinist politicians - on both sides of the House. This sort of proposal, placed alongside the current persecution of the disabled, confirms the line of travel. The Washington Consensus meets Aktion T4.

Research released last year estimated that 25million bedrooms in England were empty, largely because elderly couples do not move out of family homes to smaller properties.

At the same time, young families are increasingly being squeezed into small homes and overcrowded flats as a result of the country’s high property prices.

A government-backed pilot scheme run by Redbridge council, in east London, has won support from the Department for Communities and Local Government for helping elderly residents to downsize while retaining ownership of their homes.

Mr Shapps told The Daily Telegraph that councils should look to replicate the Redbridge “FreeSpace” project.

“For too long the housing needs of the elderly have been neglected,” he said ...

Tel  16 Jan 2012    Coalition Log    Do less, make it seem like more    
Aktion T4
Washington Consensus

Top


Mortgage squeeze fuels surge in buy-to-let investors

The share of residential housing stock owned by private landlords has jumped more than 40pc since the financial crisis, and now makes up almost a fifth of the total, according to estate agent Savills ... according to Savills, rather than the house price appreciation that lured investors during the boom, it is the prospect of rising rental income that is proving attractive.

The volume of mortgages handed to private landlords jumped 16pc to £3.8bn in the third quarter of last year, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders ...

Tel  07 Jan 2012

Top


Families face fast-track eviction to help landlords cash in on higher rents

Inner-city landlords are exploiting the country's acute housing shortage by evicting tenants and replacing them with those prepared to pay more.

The rent increases come as cuts to local housing allowance (LHA) are phased in from next month, amid warnings that a combination of rising rents and reduced allowances will see poorer families priced out.

New figures reveal a 22% increase in the number of fast-track evictions – known as "accelerated possessions" – between 2010 and 2011.

It is thought the rise is largely down to landlords taking advantage of being able to re-let their properties at a higher rent ...

According to the annual Survey of English Housing, there has been a 77% increase in the number of families living in the private rented sector in the past two years.

In 2008, 574,883 families with children were in the private rented sector. Last year the figure had ballooned to 1,017,210 families ...

Gdn  18 Dec 2011    A 'modern and compassionate party'    Housing Benefit    Third Meltdown Log
Thousands of households 'in danger of eviction'
Housing

Top


Third of private rental homes 'have safety hazards'

The annual English Housing Survey shows that 28.2% of dwellings in the private rented sector have a category 1 hazard compared to 14.5% of local authority housing, 10.8% of housing association accommodation, and 21.5% of owner-occupied dwellings.

Hazards qualifying as category 1 under the Housing Health and Safety Rating System include those that can cause death, lung cancer, permanent loss of consciousness, 80% burn injuries, the loss of a hand or foot, eye disorders, heart attacks and poisoning.

Under the Housing Act 2004, these types of hazard create an obligation for local authorities to either force the property to be vacated or to require immediate repair.

The most dangerous type of property is converted flats, with 37.7% containing at least one category 1 hazard. Older properties are also more dangerous, with 41% of buildings constructed before 1919 containing category 1 hazards compared to 4.6% of properties built in the past 20 years.

A total of almost 5m properties contain such hazards, with the most commonly occurring being those that cause falls, such as showers and baths, stairs with poorly fitted handles and grab rails, and inadequate space ...

Gdn  28 Nov 2011    
Landlord regulation proposals scrapped

Top


David Cameron vows to 'get Britain building'

"Do less, make it seem like more"

But on no account address (a) the problem of an economy skewed towards fiat money finance and its bubbles, (b) an over-priced housing market, and (c) a dysfunctional 'free market' rental sector.

First-time buyers of new homes will be able to borrow up to 95% of their value as part of plans David Cameron says will help get "Britain building again" ...

Building more homes is one of the government's economic priorities, with the number of new ones being built at its lowest level since World War II, and with rents and prices remaining high while mortgage lending is restricted.

At the heart of the coalition's approach is a mortgage indemnity scheme which will enable first-time buyers and others to borrow up to 95% of the value of newly built homes, supported by government guarantees.
"When first-time buyers on a good salary cannot get a reasonable mortgage, the whole market grinds to a halt," [David Cameron] said.

"And that ricochets around the economy, affecting builders, retailers, plumbers - all the people that depend on a housing market that is moving."

"If we don't do something like this we are not going to get this vital market moving... We will restart the housing market and get Britain building again."
KEY PROPOSALS
Mortgages of up to 95% of the value of new homes to be offered with government underwriting part of the risk
£400m public fund to help developers "unblock" stalled housing schemes
Largest discounts for social tenants wanting to own their properties under right to buy
More public sector land to be made available for building
Planning obligations on stalled projects reviewed
Up to £150m to help bring empty housing back into use
BBC NEWS  21 Nov 2011    A free market train wreck    Britain in debt    Neoliberal Consumer Culture
How previous Government housing schemes have failed to help buyers and home owners
Falling house prices, not rising Government intervention, are first time buyers’ best hope
House builders lobbied cabinet privately to get planning relaxed
The rental market reaches crisis point
Rent Soars to Record Levels

Top


'House swap' plan to help the unemployed uproot in search of work

'TheGovernor' should get an 'Adam Werritty job' advising Grant Shapps and IDS

The controversial plan to tackle the unemployment crisis means people living in social housing will be helped to uproot their families in order to chase jobs.

Details of the scheme are yet to be finalised, but it is understood the plan would involve a nationwide database of house swaps and the removal of any barriers to people in social housing moving between regions.

The scheme will be launched in the coming weeks.

Grant Shapps, the housing minister ... (said) ...

"Home swap direct will mark the start of a new drive to improve mobility within social housing." ...

TheGuvernor

I(n) Canada, where I now live, people regularly uproot their lives to take advantage of employment opportunities. There can be a real lack of work in small communities. Much of this work is in the North where condition are harsh & the jobs tough. I've done it and many people I know have gone in search of better opportunities for their families. While I'm aware that we are fortunate here in Canada to have these opportunities there is also a much stronger work ethic here & an intrinsic aversion to a life on 'welfare.'
Gdn  15 Oct 2011    Coalition Log    'Reserve Army'    
Conservatives crack down on jobseekers with tougher rules
IDS tells unemployed they should get on the bus to find work

Top


House prices in prime locations breached £1m

Over the past three years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers triggered the financial crisis the average asking price has risen by 2.5%, compared to a 16.4% increase in the previous three years.

Demand is strongest at the high-end of the market, with almost 20,000 £1m homes on the market in the three months to the end of June.

While more than half of the 19,746 £1m -plus homes on estate agents' books were in London, the capital only ranked 41st in terms of density of £1m properties.

Beaconsfield ... tops the table with 47% of properties valued at more than £1m against 13% in the capital.

Next on the list is Virginia Water, Surrey (44%); Much Hadham, Hertfordshire, (38%); Radlett, Herfordshire (37%) and Chelsea footballers' and their wives favourite Cobham, Surrey (33%) ...

London retains the highest average asking price at £427,889, up 2.4% in the last month and 7.2% over the past year.

The cheapest region is the north of England, with an average asking price of £145,430 – a 2.6% fall over the past month and 4.2% down on last year.

Gdn  19 Sept 2011    A free market train wreck    Inequality    Wealth Log

Top


Slum UK: housing crisis that shames the nation

Housing conditions in Britain are among the worst in Western Europe and cost the nation about £7bn a year by adding to the pressure on the NHS and other public services, according to a major study to be published today ...

It warns that homelessness is on the rise and predicts the return of unscrupulous landlords like the infamous Peter Rachman, who exploited his London tenants in the 1950s and 1960s.

Almost 4,000 people are sleeping rough on London's streets, an increase of 8 per cent since last year.

About half of these are from the UK and the rest from a wide variety of other countries, notably Poland ...

The Pro-Housing Alliance ... blueprint recommends the housing crisis should be tackled by the provision of 500,000 green and affordable houses and flats a year for the next seven years, including bringing empty homes back into use ...

The number of families on waiting lists in London doubled to 362,000 between 1997 and 2010 – and now accounts for more than 20 per cent of the national waiting list. Yet more than 6,000 council homes are empty in London, nearly a third because they need repairs, with more than 2,300 going without tenants for more than a year.

Ind  08 Sept 2011    Coalition Log    Housing Benefit 'Reform'    Third Meltdown

Rough Sleepers

Top


Families 'will be priced out of social housing by plans for higher rents'

The investigations, by the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research, suggests a couple with three or more children would breach the maximum £26,000 benefit cap in four out of the five local authority areas it examined.

The four authorities were: Brighton and Hove, East Sussex; Bromley, Greater London; Hertsmere, Hertfordshire; and Mid Sussex, all areas that are home to large numbers of families in affordable housing.

A couple with three children in Hertsmere would face a shortfall of £56 a week if 80% market rents were charged, while in Brighton and Hove the shortfall would be £34.

The only place in the study where 80% rents could be sustained by a larger family dependent on benefits, without incurring additional hardship, was Plymouth ...

Obs  21 Aug 2011    Housing Benefit
Housing Benefit

Top


Record rents trap tenants in a vicious circle

Rents in England and Wales rose for the sixth month in a row in July to a record high of £705 a month, plunging struggling first-time buyers into a "vicious circle" with spiralling rents making it impossible for them to save the deposit to buy a home ...

Jonathan Moore, director of Easyroommate.co.uk, said ...

" ... many renters are cutting costs by turning to flatshare, and this sector of the market is growing.

"Demand is now so strong that four tenants compete for each room available, and room rents have risen by 1.4% in the last month alone – more than twice the rate of the wider rental market." ...

Gdn  19 Aug 2011    Inequality    
'I want families to keep their money'

Top


Rents soar to record levels

The average monthly rent in the UK rose to it highest ever level in the second quarter of 2011, according to the latest Findaproperty.com rental index, as demand from frustrated first-time buyers continued to push up prices ...

The index, which is based on properties listed on the website, showed that in the three months to the end of June the cost of renting a home had risen 2% to £867 ...

Matt Griffith of first-time buyer website PricedOut said:

"With government and Bank of England action broadly successful in stopping a slide in house prices, and the housing market now frozen at very low levels of transactions, the dark side is that market adjustment now appears to be happening primarily through higher rent levels.

"Younger people face an unenviable position of having little hope of securing home ownership whilst being forced to pay out more and more for rented accommodation.

"In some markets – notably London – competition is intense, and the insecurity of renting means that turnover of tenants and the passing on of rent increases are rapid.

"This is creating a lose-lose for first-time buyers, as higher rents make saving for a deposit much harder whilst greater numbers of buy-to-let investors makes competition for cheaper property more intense."

Gdn  03 Aug 2011
Landlords to be given new powers to evict 'neighbours from hell'

Top


House prices would be hit by 'revolutionary' property tax proposed by OECD

Cash-strapped governments have long wanted to grab a bigger share of the wealth we hold in housing, now the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development says Britain should adopt a Continental European-style property tax ...

Instead of HM Revenue & Customs taxing property via stamp duty land tax (SDLT); inheritance tax (IHT); and – in the case of second homes – capital gains tax; annual liabilities would be calculated, based on estimations of house prices.

But Mr Padoan argues that his reforms would “dampen fluctuations in house prices” and are essential to put the British economy on a more stable long-term footing ...

Tel  21 July 2011    Barriers ... Green Economy    Land Tax, Fair Tax    
Property Tax
Systemic Fiscal Reform

Top


Unsold properties on estate agents' books hit record high

The Ponzi housing market damages mobility of labour

Miles Shipside, director of Rightmove, said:

"Summer sellers are more nervous about their selling prospects than the early birds who asked ever higher prices during the first six months of this year."

But he warned that many home owners may not have sufficient equity in their homes to drop their prices any further and may be "trapped" in their current properties ...

Tel  18 July 2011    Coalition Log

IDS Work Programme    
House asking prices fall for first time this year
The property ladder that threatens to become a snake
Only the foundations of a housing recovery
First-time buyers see no let-up in home loan drought
Inflation wipes thousands off property values

Top


Residents face demand for terrorism insurance

Leaseholders in Walthamstow, east London, have been told they must pay around an extra £68 a year, on top of their buildings insurance premium.

When one complained, he was told that "terrorist activity has in the past been present in Walthamstow".

Three people living in the area were convicted in 2009 and 2010 for their part in an airliner bomb plot ...

The ultimate beneficial owner of Freehold Managers is the Tchenguiz Family Trust.

Mayfair property tycoon Vincent Tchenguiz's sprawling empire was the subject of a Money investigation in February into allegations of excessive charges at several subsidiaries.

In early March he was one of nine men targeted in dawn raids by the Serious Fraud Office as part of its investigations into the collapse of one of the Icelandic banks ...

A longstanding Warner flat resident, who asked not to be named, told Money he received a letter from an insurance broker, Oval, which stated that he needed to pay £68 for a separate terrorism insurance policy.

This would be in addition to his buildings insurance, which cost around £240 ...

Gdn  15 July 2011    Corporate Sociopathy Log    

Top


Soaring private rentals reflect pressure on first-time buyers

Matt Hutchinson, director of flat and houseshare website SpareRoom.co.uk, said:

"The rise in renting is not only due to people not being able to afford to buy, but also changing attitudes towards homeownership with more and more people deciding to rent for longer rather than committing to the massive financial burden of taking out a mortgage.

"In a recent survey of more than 10,000 flat and housesharers we discovered that 12% of Britons never plan to own a property while another 12% estimated it would take them more than a decade before they could afford to climb on the property ladder, which suggests that the demand for rental property could reach crisis point in the next few years.

"Even though interest rates are at a historic low, very few first-time buyers are in a position to buy and take advantage of attractive mortgage deals, and with the cost of living spiralling out of control, making it impossible to put money away for a deposit, this is likely to put tremendous strain on the rental market."

Those stuck in private rented accommodation were penalised financially for their predicament: while the average weekly rent for social renters was £75 last year, tenants in private accommodation paid an average of £155 a week ...

Gdn  05 July 2011    Coalition Log
Landlords from Hell
Spirit of Rachman still walks the streets of London
Rachman on the march again?
Private tenants feel 'powerless' over landlord problems
Renting
Shelter

Top


Councils 'are turning blind eye' to rise of slum landlords

A chronic shortage in social housing and an unaffordable housing market mean that around 3.4 million people in the UK rent their homes, a 40 per cent rise in the past five years.

Local authorities are turning a blind eye to illegal and unsafe housing because they do not have the resources to re-house those inside, housing officers admit in footage obtained by uncover documentary teams for Channel 4's Dispatches ...

Research conducted by Shelter says that more than 90 per cent of environmental health officers with tenant liaison responsibilities have encountered examples of landlords engaging in the harassment or illegal eviction of tenants.

Eighty per cent of environmental health officers have come across landlords in their area who persistently refuse to maintain their properties to a decent standard and yet two-thirds say no landlords have been prosecuted in the past 12 months ...

Ind  04 July 2011    Coalition Log
Soaring private rentals reflect pressure on first-time buyers
Landlord regulation proposals scrapped

Top


Eric Pickles warns David Cameron of rise in homeless families risk

A leaked letter, from the office of Eric Pickles has warned that welfare reform will make 40,000 more families homeless ...

Written by Nico Heslop, Pickles's private secretary, at the clear instigation of the minister, the letter lays bare fears of mass homelessness "disproportionately impacting on families". It says:

           40,000 families will be made homeless by the welfare reforms, putting further strain on services already "seeing increased pressures".

           An estimated £270m saving from the benefits cap will be wiped out by the need to divert resources to help the newly homeless and is likely to "generate a net cost".

           Half of the 56,000 affordable homes the government expects to be constructed by 2015 will not be built because developers will realise they will not be able to recoup even 80% of market rates from tenants.

Gdn  02 July 2011    Coaliton Log    Welfare

Alternatives to Welfare
Full text of letter

Top


Homelessness on the rise as recession and cuts bite

BTW, Mr Shapps, your government has cut the funding for CABs [ME]

Homelessness is rising dramatically for the first time in years in the UK as the effects of the recession are felt ...

The government data show that 26,400 people approached a local council for housing help in the first three months of 2011, a rise of 23% compared with the same period last year.

Less than half of these applications were successful ...

Some of the biggest rises in homelessness applications came in London boroughs: substantial rises were recorded in Bromley (99%), Hammersmith and Fulham (92%), Islington (88%), and Haringey (83%), in the first three months of 2011.

The figures also revealed an increase in homeless families being housed in bed and breakfast accommodation ...

The housing minister, Grant Shapps, admitted the figures underline "how the recession has brought difficult times for lots of people".

But he said homelessness remained a government priority and urged people at risk of losing their homes to contact a Citizens Advice bureau ...

Gdn  10 June 2011    Coalition Log    FYB Log    'We're all in it together'
Statutory Homelessness: March Quarter 2011 England

Top

Homeless fears in benefits shift

HUNDREDS of people in Blackpool face being made homeless under changes to housing benefit, a leading charity warned today.

Homelessness charity Crisis says government statistics show 720 people in the resort could lose their homes and fears many may be forced to sleep rough ...

Blackpool Gazette  25 May 2011    FYB Log

Crackdown on Benefits    Ponzi Housing Market    Welfare Reform    Youth Unemployment

Thousands of London council homes left empty

More than 6,000 council homes have been left unoccupied in London, figures from the 33 local authorities have shown ...

BBC NEWS  15 May 2011    Coalition Log    Housing    

Top


Top


Buy-to-let free-for-all is in desperate need of reform

... the societal impact of more than 1.3 million buy-to-letters ... is having a devastating impact on working people ...

Young workers, burdened with college debts, face ever higher rents, preventing them from saving for a deposit.

They have no choice but to live in shared properties on short tenancies ...

Tenure is important. Workers forced into unstable short-term leases cannot plan for their future and inevitably delay starting families ...

Non-productive rentier capitalism is the enemy of enterprise, channelling the nation's resources into the dead end of house price bubbles.

Wouldn't we rather it went into rebuilding Britain's battered industrial base?

Three reforms are necessary.

First, we need to bring buy-to-let under the regulation of the FSA. Given that it was behind the economy-wrecking surge in "wholesale" lending, it is bizarre it still escapes oversight.

Second, the FSA should require buy-to-let loans to be written on a repayment basis. It's not only prudent, it puts them on a level playing field with first-time buyers.

Third, we need better protection for tenants, such as the abolition of assured shorthold tenancies, to be replaced with longer-term contracts and rules preventing landlords raising rents by more than inflation.

Meanwhile, lenders need to take a long hard look at themselves and their customers.

Building societies were established to help lower middle class and working class people buy their first home. Now it seems they'd rather lend to landlords ...

Gdn  23 Apr 2011

Top


Planning changes threaten homes targets, say MPs

The government proposes a "New Homes Bonus" scheme to encourage councils to build homes by matching the extra council tax from the new properties.

But MPs said there was little evidence to show how effective it would be - which cast doubt on government predictions that the housing supply would increase by 8-13%.

They questioned whether the government's "aspiration" to build 150,000 affordable homes over the next four years "will be achievable under the government's current proposals for the planning system".

And they said incentives should not just be based on how many homes are built - but where they were sited and how well they integrated into the local community.

The New Homes Bonus was "a bold experiment" but they were not confident it would be successful.

The committee also raised doubts about "vague and imprecise" wording in a new statutory "duty to co-operate" on local authorities and other bodies - and recommended it be strengthened, to avoid legal battles.

The committee's Labour chairman Clive Betts said abolishing the regional strategies was creating "inertia" in development and would "make it much harder to deliver necessary but controversial or emotive 'larger than local' facilities - such as waste disposal sites, mineral workings or sites for Gypsies and Travellers".

He said it was "not acceptable for ministers to abdicate their responsibilities" and leave it to "under-resourced and under-skilled local planning authorities" ...

BBC NEWS  17 Mar 2011
Essex council criticised over £8m plan to evict Travellers

Top


The Depression of 2010

In Boom Bust, I trace land values over four centuries. They move in 18-year cycles, identifying a clear pattern of turning points in the economy. Embedded in this process is a 14-year house-building cycle, terminating in feverish land speculation. During the last two years of the construction cycle people recklessly expose themselves to the Winner's Curse.

In the land market, a rise in demand cannot result in an offsetting increase in supply in places where people want to live and work. So prices are driven to dizzying heights by speculators, who outbid each other with offers for tracts that cannot yield an economic return. The market stalls and the house of cards comes crashing down.

The timetable is dictated by a financial mechanism, at the heart of which is the rate of interest on mortgages. From 1714, this was pegged by the markets at 5 per cent. Today, the MPC is contemplating raising its rate of 4.75 per cent in response to inflationary pressures. The return of the rate to 5 per cent will mark the final phase of the property cycle. Many house buyers who think they are about to pull off great deals this Easter will pay a heavy price in the recession of 2010.

Observer 27 March 2005
Boom Bust: House Prices, Banking and the Depression of 2010



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'Taking Stock'
Empty homes rules tightened 'to protect civil liberties'
House prices slide for fifth month running
Councils offered new homes bonus
House prices continue to rise in January (2010)
Help for those who face losing their home
John Denham's database of landlords
No room at the homeless hostels
Move to create affordable homes is 'blocked by housebuilders'

Housing Market
Shelter
National Housing Federation
Peabody Trust