In July 2008 the-then Chancellor, Alistair Darling, warned that ...
"It is important that we reduce our dependency far more quickly than perhaps people thought was necessary." [1]
Despite Tony Blair's raft of warnings, and the toughness of David Cameron's proposed
Climate Change Bill, Britain clocked in at 13th place in a recent league table of spending on
low carbon energy.
A succession of reports since the coalition came to power confirm that the switch to a 'green economy' is lower
on this government's priority than keeping ratings agency Moody's - and its ilk - from downgrading the country's credit rating with corporate finance.
[AVMB]
Interestingly, in view of Richard Heinberg's "last nation standing" hypothesis, China tops the league.
This month’s Museletter from Richard Heinberg at the Post Carbon Institute provides a valuable synopsis of where China and the US are at in avoiding an increasingly inevitable societal collapse,'Last man standing'
Increasingly I am forced to conclude that the object of the game that world leaders are actually playing is not to avoid collapse; it’s simply to postpone it a while so as to be the last nation to go down, so yours can have the chance to pick the others’ carcasses before it meets the same fate.I’ve reached a similar opinion after watching how both nations have responded to the first major round of economic problems to come. Heinberg continues,For these two nations, avoiding collapse would require solving a range of enormous problems, of which at least four are non-negotiable: climate change; peak fossil fuels (in effect, stagnating and, soon, declining energy supplies); the inherent instability of growth-based financial systems; and the vulnerability of food systems to factors like fresh water scarcity and soil erosion (in addition to global warming and fuel scarcity). If they fail to address any one of these, societal collapse is inevitable—in a few decades certainly, but perhaps in just the next few years.After reading through the rest of the write-up, I’m wondering if there is any hope for civilization (despite the arguments for or against maintaining it). And if we can agree that the people in charge don’t have our resilience in mind, when do we completely disconnect from the system?
A Robot, I am not [NB: This link is unavailable as of 04 Dec 2011]The penultimate para summarises the absolute failure of the current political generation, a failure catastrophically compounded by the occasional lip-service paid to the problem of climate change and the need for sustainablility.
The case of the current coalition in the UK is paradigmatic of the systemic deceipt.
Here in the UK we hear rather too often lip service paid to the "greenest ever government".
On my page - What happened to Eco-Friendly Dave? - I have tried to keep abreast of the failures, the non sequiturs, and the outright hypocrisy of the coalition's betrayal of future generations by the gap between spin and reality.
As ministers are - allegedly - intelligent people, Heinberg's thesis must be in pole position to account for the duplicity.
The truth, of course, is the world has been enmeshed in the neoliberal utopian experiment since that other 9/11 in Santiago in 1973, when Pinochet - and his 'Chicago Boys' - set the experiment in motion. [1973]
The reason for my pessimism is that the nature of this experiment has never been spelled out to ordinary people, much less put in front of them in election manifestos, for fear or rejection.
For behind the insanity of 'just-in-time' corporate globalisation lies the neoliberal core motto: 'greed is good greed works'.
There may not be a last nation standing, so much as last communes - of the filthy rich - who will believe they have enough resources to ride out the ultimate crisis.
But, as President Fletcher found out at the end of Alistair Beaton's satire, without other people we are nothing.
And this is where the neoliberal message is a snare and a delusion.
We are not 'autonomous individuals', but the degredation of the social - the flip side of unrestrained greed - is at the heart of the coming cataclysm.A Planet for the President
'Save the planet', science leaders urge G8 governments
It will damage business - George Osborne
The three so-called "G-Science" statements say that priority should be given to finding ways of finding a coherent way of simultaneously meeting water and energy needs, building resilience to natural disasters and developing better ways of measuring greenhouse gas emissions in order to see if individual countries are meeting their international obligations to reduce emissions.
The first G-Science statement called on leaders to consider water and energy as closely linked issues. Otherwise, it says, there will be shortages of both. The statement recommends that governments pursue policies that integrate the two, emphasise conservation and encourage regional and global cooperation.
The second statement says more can be done to minimise the impact of major international disasters, such as a tsunami or nuclear accident. In addition to regular risk surveillance, the G-Science statement recommends building "resilience" to catastrophic events by, for example, improving public health systems.
The third statement calls for more accurate and standardised methods to estimate human and natural sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. It recommends that all countries produce annual reports of their greenhouse gas emissions and sinks. The academies also call for greater international cooperation to share new technologies and scientific data ...
BBC NEWS 11 May 2012Top scientists urge governments to solve environmental 'dilemmas'
Population and consumption key to future
A Planet for the President
Game Over for the Climate
Canada’s tar sands, deposits of sand saturated with bitumen, contain twice the amount of carbon dioxide emitted by global oil use in our entire history.
If we were to fully exploit this new oil source, and continue to burn our conventional oil, gas and coal supplies, concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere eventually would reach levels higher than in the Pliocene era, more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at least 50 feet higher than it is now ...
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has risen from 280 parts per million to 393 p.p.m. over the last 150 years. The tar sands contain enough carbon — 240 gigatons — to add 120 p.p.m.
Tar shale, a close cousin of tar sands found mainly in the United States, contains at least an additional 300 gigatons of carbon.
If we turn to these dirtiest of fuels, instead of finding ways to phase out our addiction to fossil fuels, there is no hope of keeping carbon concentrations below 500 p.p.m. ...
NYT 09 May 2012
Has the 'greenest government ever' gassed itself?
Clearly, the coalition are looking to shale gas and ccs to bail them out on co2 reduction targets.
The question being asked in ['green'] circles now is whether Saturday's announcement on gas-fired power stations means that climate policy has effectively "gone" ...
One of the [Committee on Climate Change's] central recommendations is that the electricity sector should aim to "virtually decarbonise" by 2030 ...
It's a goal that the prime minister said last year he "basically endorsed", telling MPs: "If we don't decarbonise electricity we've got no hope of meeting all the targets that we are all committed to." ...
Recent research has ... cast doubt on the widespread belief that if coal-fired plants close and are replaced by gas, the climate wins.
Gas produces roughly half as much carbon dioxide as coal when burned.
However, coal-burning also emits tiny dust particles, aerosols, which have a cooling effect.
Taking this into account, and the short-term nature of aerosols versus the long lifetime of CO2, US researchers showed that a global switch from coal to gas would indeed restrain temperature rise - but not until after 2050.
And that is if none of the gas leaks from pipelines - which it does.
Natural gas - methane - is itself a potent greenhouse gas; and with a likely leakage rate taken into account, the US research team showed, it would take more than 100 years for a coal-to-gas switch to curb the rate of global warming ...
BBC NEWS 19 Apr 2012Carbon capture 'viable with long-term support'
The government recently announced a £1bn fund to help carbon capture and storage (CCS) develop; but the report says wider support is needed ...
"CCS is seen as the key to many scenarios of how to mitigate climate change, whether that's the UK meeting its targets on cutting emissions or global targets that keep warming below 2C," said the report's lead author Dr Jim Watson, director of the energy research group at Sussex University.
"But unlike other low-carbon technologies, CCS doesn't exist at the commercial scale. We don't know when they will be technically proven at full scale, and whether costs will be competitive with other low-carbon options.
"So it is vital that the government's commitment leads to several full-scale CCS projects as soon as possible; only through such learning by doing will we know whether it is a serious option for the future." ...
BBC NEWS 19 Apr 2012New UK attempt to capture carbon
DECC
Switching from coal to natural gas would do little for global climate
Green and growth? Can’t we have both?
Osborne adviser urges stronger eco push
Green Alliance
Setback for UK wind industry as Doosan scraps investment plans
Korean company blames deteriorating confidence for decision to suspend project that would have created 1,700 jobs ...
Conservative backbench MPs urged the prime minister, David Cameron, to slow down the drive to develop renewable power on the basis that it requires public money the country can no longer afford.
The arguments against wind have been heightened by the discovery of potentially cheap shale gas in Britain and comments from the chancellor, George Osborne, that the UK would allow itself to be made uncompetitive by chasing European Union environmental goals.
Meanwhile, a new national body opposing both onshore and offshore wind turbines will launch in Westminster on Thursday at an event sponsored by Lord Carlile, the Liberal Democrat peer and former Montgomeryshire MP ...
Gdn 18 Apr 2012Renewable energy
US tops global clean energy investment rankings
The table, published in a report by the Pew Charitable Trusts, showed that US invested more than $48bn (£30bn) in the sector, up from $34bn in 2010.
China slipped to second place, the authors reported, with investment only increasing by $0.5bn to $45.5bn.
Globally, overall financial backing in clean energy technologies hit a record $263bn, up 6.5% from 2010 levels.
The report, Who is Winning the Clean Energy Race, showed that G20 nations accounted for 95% of the investment in the sector (which does not include nuclear power).
The data, compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ranked the UK as seventh in the world, with $9.4bn of investment in 2011 ...
BBC NEWS 12 Apr 2012
Arctic oil rush will ruin ecosystem
... the new report from Lloyd's, written by Charles Emmerson and Glada Lahn of Chatham House, says it is "highly likely" that future economic activity in the Arctic will further disturb ecosystems already stressed by the consequences of climate change.
"Migration patterns of caribou and whales in offshore areas may be affected. Other than the direct release of pollutants into the Arctic environment, there are multiple ways in which ecosystems could be disturbed, such as the construction of pipelines and roads, noise pollution from offshore drilling, seismic survey activity or additional maritime traffic as well as through the break-up of sea ice."
The authors point out that the Arctic is not one but several ecosystems, and is "highly sensitive to damage" that would have a long-term impact ...
Rates of natural biodegradation of oil in the Arctic could be expected to be lower than in more temperate environments such as the Gulf of Mexico, although there is currently insufficient understanding of how oil will degrade over the long term in the Arctic ...
Gdn 12 Apr 2012The dangers of Arctic oil
Countries lay claim to Arctic in battle for oil and gas
Oil exploration under Arctic ice could cause 'uncontrollable' natural disaster
The struggle for Arctic riches
Melting ice caps open up Arctic for 'white gold rush'
Shell and Cairn Energy announce 'risky' drilling plans in Arctic
Chatham House
Arctic
Somalia promises west oil riches
Iraq II?
The Somali prime minister, Abdiweli Mohamed Ali, speaking to the Observer after meeting Hillary Clinton and David Cameron at the London Somalia Conference last week, said that in the future a share of natural resources would be offered in return for help with reconstruction ...
"What we need is capital from countries like the UK to invest. If the private sector can come in and do the work, then we welcome them."
But many observers are uneasy about foreign interference in a country still emerging from 21 years of civil war and facing political transition.
The mandate for Somalia's transitional government runs out in August.
Chatham House analyst Adjoa Anyimadu said:
"There's already a lot of scepticism from parts of the Somalian community about the reasons for the sudden focus on Somalia and the reasons behind the UK's interest.
"The potential for things to go wrong is high, for the population to feel they are being undermined or invaded by foreigners. Al-Shabaab has little credence with many Somalians but a foreign intervention could create a common enemy."
Gdn 25 Feb 2012Britain leads dash to explore for oil in war-torn Somalia
Soaring oil prices will dwarf the Greek drama
The commodity price revolution
The vital physical ingredients of life – commodities such as iron, wheat, sugar and zinc – are now two and a half times as expensive, on average, as they were at the turn of the century, and that's excluding the impact of inflation ...
The rapid expansion in the global population and the phenomenal rise of emerging markets such as China and India mean there are now far more people who can afford to buy non-essential items – as well as more people to buy the basics.
At the top end of the wealth league, emerging market growth has created a new generation of billionaires, while growing income disparity in the West means the rich, at least, are getting richer.
The growth in the super-wealthy is increasing demand for exotic items, thereby pushing up their prices.
And on the supply side, much of the "low-hanging fruit" in the resources world has long been plucked, forcing miners and energy companies to seek out ever more remote supplies, such as oil contained in tar sands, under deep water, or around the Arctic.
So, while resources are not yet running out, they are becoming more expensive – and more environmentally hazardous – to "harvest". As a result, oil now costs twice as much to extract as it did a decade ago.
Unfortunately, things are only going to get worse, because the trends that have created the commodities boom are accelerating ...
Ind 11 Feb 2012A Hole in the World
U.S. Drones Patrolling Its Skies Provoke Outrage in Iraq
American contractors say they have been told that the State Department is considering to field unarmed surveillance drones in the future in a handful of other potentially "high-threat" countries, including Indonesia and Pakistan, and in Afghanistan after the bulk of American troops leave in the next two years.
State Department officials say that no decisions have been made beyond the drone operations in Iraq.
The drones are the latest example of the State Department’s efforts to take over functions in Iraq that the military used to perform.
Some 5,000 private security contractors now protect the embassy’s 11,000-person staff, for example, and typically drive around in heavily armored military vehicles ...
The State Department began operating some drones in Iraq last year on a trial basis, and stepped up their use after the last American troops left Iraq in December, taking the military drones with them.
The United States, which will soon begin taking bids to manage drone operations in Iraq over the next five years, needs formal approval from the Iraqi government to use such aircraft here, Iraqi officials said.
Such approval may be untenable given the political tensions between the two countries ...
NYT 30 Jan 2012Drone aircraft are patrolling U.S. Cities
More drones patrolling U.S.-Mexico border
Superspy in the sky could soon be patrolling over British cities
U.S. Spy Drones illegally patrolling the U.S. Canada border
U.S. drones seek to curb piracy off Somalia
U.S. Drone Reportedly Kills Thirty People In Pakistan
Too late to contain killer flu science
Professor Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University in Piscataway, New Jersey, said that the research, which was funded by the US Government, should never have been done without first assessing the risks and benefits ...
Ind 22 Dec 2011Debate Persists on Deadly Flu Made Airborne
US tells scientists to censor flu research
Alarm as Dutch lab creates highly contagious killer flu
A Planet for the President
Canada to withdraw from Kyoto Protocol
Peter Kent said the protocol "does not represent a way forward for Canada" and the country would face crippling fines for failing to meet its targets ...
He said meeting Canada's obligations under Kyoto would cost $13.6bn (10.3bn euros; £8.7bn):
"That's $1,600 from every Canadian family - that's the Kyoto cost to Canadians, that was the legacy of an incompetent Liberal government" ...
BBC NEWS 13 Dec 2011'Kyoto Has Only Carrots and No Sticks'
Climate deal: A guarantee our children will be worse off than us
Eight years lost ... and more come?
... the deal ensures beyond doubt that our children will be worse off than we have been.
Unlike the economic debt currently transfixing the attention of world's leaders, it appears possible to them that we can put our climate debt on the never-never.
The loans in euros, dollars and pounds will be called in within days, weeks, and months.
But the environmental debt – run up by many decades of dumping carbon dioxide waste in the atmosphere – won't be due for full repayment before 2020, according to the plan from Durban.
If this roadmap to agree a global deal to tackle climate change by 2015, which would take force by 2020, is a triumph, it is a pitiful one.
It aspires to achieve in four year's time what was deemed essential by the world's governments in 2007 ...
Cleaning up the energy system that underpins the global economy is inevitable, sooner or later.
If not, true economic armageddon awaits, driven by peak oil, climate chaos and civil unrest ...
Gdn 11 Dec 2011Reaction to UN climate deal
Climate change - what's your excuse?
Another climate summit, another chance goes up in smoke
Participation of the leading emitters is crucial because the three nations alone account between them for 46 per cent of global emissions – China for 24 per cent, the US for 16 per cent and India for 6 per cent – yet none of them shows any sign of making emissions cuts, and Chinese and Indian emissions in particular are growing at nearly 10 per cent annually.
The mere increase in Chinese CO2 between 2009 and 2010 of 694 million tonnes dwarfs all the carbon emissions that Britain produces in a year.
The US has taken on a target, but given no sign of how it will achieve it, while the other two have said they will reduce the energy intensity of their economy, but not the emissions themselves.
All are reluctant to cut their carbon for fear it would damage their economies.
The Americans are wholly constrained by a Republican-dominated, climate-sceptic Congress, while the Chinese and Indians are desperate to maintain their growth rates ...
... if the negotiations do fail to get a credible deal, 20 years of effort to slash the gases causing the atmosphere to warm will run into the sand.
It will mean a "lost decade" for climate change in which no real steps are taken to curb emissions until after 2020.
Emissions now total more than 32 billion tonnes of CO2 globally and are growing at an unprecedented 6 per cent per year.
This is despite the fact that to have any chance of holding global warming below the danger threshold of 2C, scientists agree that, before 2020, emissions must peak ...
Ind 09 Dec 2011
Durban Conference: The forgotten planet
Not long ago, politicians were proclaiming that climate change was the greatest threat facing the world.
David Cameron drove a pack of huskies across a glacier, proclaiming that the Conservatives had to lead a "new green revolution and recapture climate change from the pessimists".
Today, amid the preoccupations of a global recession, the future of the world itself seems a secondary concern for the political classes.
The key villain remains the United States, which a year before presidential elections will not sign up to a new green target.
China will not play ball either. Japan, Russia and Canada have pulled out of the current negotiations.
Britain has witnessed the dramatic slide of environmentalism down the political agenda ... the Prime Minister's own "green guru", Steve Hilton, confesses he has doubts about the climate-change argument ...
Ind 04 Dec 2011
Climate fund talks in disarray as US refuses to sign deal
Emergency talks are continuing this morning in a bid to rescue a proposed climate fund which is central to securing meaningful resolutions from the UN's climate change conference in Durban.
There is still significant disagreement over how to run the Green Climate Fund, intended to channel billions of pounds to help poorer countries take on climate change, with the US and Saudi Arabia said to be standing in the way ...
Yesterday, Lord Prescott, the Rapporteur on Climate Change for the Parliamentary Assembly for the Council of Europe, called for the Kyoto Protocol to be put on hold to ensure delegates had time to decide on new measures ...
Launching the Council of Europe's report: "Stop the Clock, Save our Planet," Lord Prescott called Canada, which failed to meet its targets, a "disgrace" ...
"It seems the US and Canada are still slaves to big oil and their own vested interests, preserving their status quo while obstructing the efforts of others ...
Ind 03 Dec 2011
Climate deal pushed by poorest nations
The LDC bloc won't be among the rivals to be the 'last nation standing'
The draft mandate that the [48-country Least Developed Countries bloc] launched into the current UN summit ... says that talks "shall begin immediately after 1 January 2012 and shall conclude... by COP18 ... "
"All Parties must take urgent action to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions and set a long term goal so as to hold the increase in global average temperature below 1.5C above pre-industrial levels and stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere below 350 parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent (350ppm CO2e)," it continues.Durban climate conferenceBrazil and India have argued that no new process should begin before 2015 ...
* Summit will attempt to agree the road map for a future global deal on reducing carbon emissions
* Developing countries are insisting rich nations pledge further emission cuts under the Kyoto Protocol
* Delegates also aim to finalise some deals struck at last year's summit
* These include speeding up the roll-out of clean technology to developing nations ... and a system for managing the Green Climate Fund, scheduled to gather and distribute billions of dollars per year to developing countries
Progress may also be made on funding forest protection
BBC NEWS 01 Dec 2011
Bird Flu: Scientists Develop New Strain Of H5N1, Avian Influenza, That Could Kill Millions
It sounds like the setup for a Hollywood thriller: scientists in a lab create a virus as contagious as the flu that kills half of those infected.
We're safe as long as the virus remains locked up, but if it escapes or gets into the hands of bioterrorists, it has the potential to become a pandemic and kill millions around the world ...
Huffington Post 29 Nov 2011A Planet for the President
Canada makes Kyoto climate strike
Canada will not make further cuts in its greenhouse gas emissions under the Kyoto Protocol, and may begin formally withdrawing next month.
Though not a surprise, the news will anger poor countries that say the rich are reneging on pledges made 14 years ago when the protocol was signed ...
BBC NEWS 28 Nov 2011We will all pay a price for failure in Durban
The other scenario is, of course, no agreement – everyone goes home and the clock carries on ticking. This would be disastrous.
If we are to keep the rise in average temperatures within two degrees above the pre-industrial level, the range that scientists consider the maximum tolerable, emissions must peak by 2020, which means reaching a planetary agreement on emissions some time before that, by 2015 at the latest.
Time is short.
Ind 28 Nov 2011Sign climate deal or poorest will starve
'A Planet for the President'
Chinese economic miracle fuels surge in carbon emissions
Soaring carbon dioxide emissions from China and the US have driven the world's output of greenhouse gases to its highest level ...
Global CO2 emissions in 2010 reached 33.51 billion tonnes, up from 31.63 billion tonnes in 2009 – an increase of nearly 6 per cent.
This is believed to be the highest-ever percentage increase year on year, despite growth in many industrial economies being sluggish or non-existent.
However, the figures from the US Department of Energy show clearly that it is the surging Chinese economy that is driving the growth: China's emissions in 2010 were 8.15 billion tonnes, up from 7.46 billion tonnes the year before – a 9.3 per cent increase in 12 months.
The 694-million-tonne increase alone dwarfs all the carbon emissions that Britain produces in a year.
China now accounts for 24.3 per cent of global carbon emissions ...
The US, whose emissions totalled 5.49 billion tonnes in 2010, up from 5.27 billion tonnes in 2009 – an increase of 4.1 per cent – now accounts for 16 per cent of emissions worldwide ...
Between them, the two industrial giants produce 40 per cent of the world's greenhouse gases, and neither shows any sign of slowing down ...
Ind 05 Nov 2011
Geopolitical implications of a Greek default: The Greece-Cyprus-Israel nexus
What is less widely known is how entangled Israel has recently become with Greece and Cyprus.
Following the deaths in the Gaza flotilla debacle of 2010, leading to tensions with Turkey, and the loss of key ally Egypt in the Arab Spring, Israel has shifted its Eastern Mediterranean focus – building new linkages with Greece and especially Cyprus ... more recently economic ties have accelerated.
These have included in particular the establishment of a Greco-Cypriot-Israeli Exclusive Economic Zone, in which there is drilling for oil and gas.
Indeed, the expected early 2012 announcements of the results of drilling constitute a joker in the pack of the Eurozone crisis – Israel's 2009 discovery of the large Tamar gas reserve (potentially worth $60 billion) materially shifted the outlook for its energy trade balance.
There is speculation that the Cypriot finds could be larger, and in an economy the GDP of which is only around $20 billion, a find on this scale could be transformative ...
Tel 23 Sept 2011
George Osborne will stick to austerity programme despite halting output
24 July 2011 7:54AM
I would refer people to this book: Richard Heinberg
This unique contemporary study of the global predicament makes clear the need to invent a new financial paradigm (removing the money-creation function from private banks) and a steady-state or degrowth economy.
Unfortunately we have a situation where politicians and bankers are hand-in-glove extending business-as-usual and pretending that growth can still be achieved.
Are they deluded or plain greedy?
The likelihood of a managed migration under the status-quo to a sustainable economy seems remote, so there needs to be a political party willing to embrace and espouse these principles, and be ready to make a persuasive case when the next elections come (in the UK that can only mean the Green Party methinks) which - with Osborne's austerity plans seeming certain to only accelerate the contraction - could come soon, particularly with sovereign defaults and the critically unstable state of global finance looming large.
Is there sufficient freedom in the media to provide an airing for these contrarian (even subversive) views?
Without such a political mandate we're just scrambling around in the ruins.
Obs 24 July 2011The End of Growth
Japan finds rare earths in Pacific seabed
At present, China produces 97% of the world's rare earth metals ...
The British journal Nature Geoscience reported that a team of scientists led by Yasuhiro Kato, an associate professor of earth science at the University of Tokyo, found the minerals in sea mud at 78 locations.
"The deposits have a heavy concentration of rare earths. Just one square kilometre (0.4 square mile) of deposits will be able to provide one-fifth of the current global annual consumption," said Yasuhiro Kato, an associate professor of earth science at the University of Tokyo.
The minerals were found at depths of 3,500 to 6,000 metres (11,500-20,000 ft) below the ocean surface.
One-third of the sites yielded rich contents of rare earths and the metal yttrium, Mr Kato said ...
BBC NEWS 04 July 2011Hi-tech industries in disarray as China rations vital minerals
Seabed mining risks in Pacific ...
Drillers propose deep-Earth quest
Obama Will Speed Pullout From War in Afghanistan
Asserting that the country that served as a base for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks no longer represented a terrorist threat to the United States, Mr. Obama declared that the “tide of war is receding.”
And in a blunt recognition of domestic economic strains, he said, “America, it is time to focus on nation-building here at home.” ...
NYT 22 June 2011Afghan analysis: political calculation rather than military judgment
White House aides have calculated that the killing of Osama bin Laden nearly two months ago has given Mr Obama the political wiggle room to be able to decrease troop levels much more quickly than had been planned.
His room for manoeuvre is increased by the fact that Americans are weary after a decade of war in Afghanistan, with polls consistently showing that two thirds oppose it.
Essentially, Mr Obama is embarking on a slow motion version of the advice over Vietnam offered by Senator George Aiken in 1966: declare victory and get out ...
Tel 22 June 2011Afghanistan withdrawal reaction could decide Barack Obama's electoral fate
The tide changes for Obama on Afghanistan
Cost of metals used in hi-tech devices soars as China limits supplies
The new mercantilism ...
The price of rare earth metals, used in items raging from computer hard drives and wind turbines to plasma televisions and smartphones, has more than doubled to record levels in the past two weeks, after a clampdown on illegal mining by China, the world's dominant producer of such elements ...
Europium oxide, an element with phosphorescent properties used in energy-saving light bulbs, plasma TVs and smartphones, has nearly tripled from about $1,260 a kilogram to a record $3,400 ...
Dysprosium oxide, a key additive used in the neodymium-iron-boron magnets found in computer hard drives and wind turbines, doubled from about $720 a kg to a record $1,470 over the same period ...
Prices of the 17 so-called rare earth metals have risen in recent years because China, which produces 97% of global output, has significantly reduced exports and built stockpiles.
Although China only has about a third of global rare earth deposits, it dominates the market, having forced most competitors out of business by undercutting them ...
At the same time, demand for rare earth metals has rocketed as the digital revolution has produced a huge array of popular hi-tech products such as iPods and smartphones, while fast-growing emerging markets have created millions of newly wealthy consumers to buy them ...
Obs 19 June 2011
Obama: US will seek oil in Alaska and Gulf of Mexico
Using his address to tell Americans that he understood their concerns about rising prices, President Obama focused particularly on the price of fuel, which has spiked in recent months.
US consumers have historically enjoyed cheap fuel, but have seen prices reach $4 per gallon (£0.65 per litre) in recent months ...
BBC NEWS 14 May 2011
Battle for Arctic oil intensifies
Another [WikiLeaks ] cable details the lengths to which the US has been going to influence Greenland.
"Our intensified outreach to the Greenlanders will encourage them to resist any false choice between the United States and Europe.
It will also strengthen our relationship with Greenland vis-a-vis the Chinese, who have shown increasing interest in Greenland's natural resource," a US diplomat is said to have written.
Excitement about the commercial potential of the Arctic has escalated as ice has retreated, making access to oil, gold and uranium easier at a time when commodity prices have rocketed.
The US Geological Survey reported in 2008 that up to a quarter of the world's remaining reserves may lie under a melting ice cap ...
The WikiLeaks cables show how the scramble for resources in the Arctic is heightening military tension in the region, with Nato sources worried about the potential for armed conflict with Russia ...
Canadian leaders have privately expressed disquiet over Nato's mooted plans to use military force in the Arctic in the face of perceived Russian aggression ...
Gdn 12 May 2011
'Big oil firms are still in the driving seat when it comes to the resource war'
As well as documenting just how highly oil figured in the thinking of those who led what is widely thought to have been an illegal invasion, Fuel on the Fire exposes the lengths to which the occupying powers went to prise the country's oil production out of the control of the Iraqi government, and into the hands of international oil companies, against the wishes of the Iraqi people ...
"Oil was the most important strategic interest behind the war and it shaped the decisions of the occupying powers," [Greg Muttitt] tells me.
"The primary strategic interest for the US and Britain is to have a low and stable oil price. A secondary interest is for their own corporations to do well." ...
At the heart of Fuel on the Fire is the story of the Iraqi peoples' fight against the Oil Law – a law which would have removed the need for parliamentary approval of contracts with oil companies ...
Ind 22 Apr 2011Secret memos expose link between oil firms and invasion of Iraq
Iraqi oil supply was considered to be 'vital' to British interests
Silly me. Here I had thought that world leaders would want to keep their nations from collapsing.China or the U.S.: Which Will Be the Last Nation Standing?
They must be working hard to prevent currency collapse, financial system collapse, food system collapse, social collapse, environmental collapse, and the onset of general, overwhelming misery—right?
But no, that’s not what the evidence suggests. Increasingly I am forced to conclude that the object of the game that world leaders are actually playing is not to avoid collapse; it’s simply to postpone it a while so as to be the last nation to go down, so yours can have the chance to pick the others’ carcasses before it meets the same fate ...
For these two nations, avoiding collapse would require solving a range of enormous problems, of which at least four are non-negotiable: climate change; peak fossil fuels (in effect, stagnating and, soon, declining energy supplies); the inherent instability of growth-based financial systems; and the vulnerability of food systems to factors like fresh water scarcity and soil erosion (in addition to global warming and fuel scarcity).
If they fail to address any one of these, societal collapse is inevitable—in a few decades certainly, but perhaps in just the next few years ...
Richard Heinberg's Museletter 03 Feb 2010China is leading the way with thorium
China enters race to develop nuclear energy from thorium
China bets on thorium
Urgent steps needed to wean UK onto other energy sources
The energy secretary, Chris Huhne, told the Observer that the UK had no option but to speed up efforts to move away from oil.
"Getting off the oil hook is made all the more urgent by the crisis in the Middle East. We cannot afford to go on relying on such a volatile source of energy when we can have clean, green and secure energy from low-carbon sources," he said.
"The carbon plan is about ensuring that the whole of government is engaged in a joined-up effort to lead us into a low-carbon world."
The transport secretary, Philip Hammond, who has infuriated green groups by floating the idea of raising the motorway speed limit from 70mph to 80mph, will be told he must produce a nationwide strategy to promote installation of infrastructure for electric cars by June.
It is also expected that new deadlines will be set for building low-carbon homes, and that a firm starting date of September 2012 will be established for a new "green investment bank" to become fully operational.
The Carbon Plan will be launched this week by David Cameron, his deputy Nick Clegg and Huhne.
In a tacit admission that ministers have failed so far to live up to their claim to be part of the "greenest government ever", the prime minister will, in effect, make their job security dependent on "green achievement" by demanding that those whose departments fall short of environmental targets write to him with a full explanation of what went wrong ...
Guardian 05 Mar 2011Gloomy Malthus provides food for thought ...
We must end our oil dependency, says chancellor
World oil supplies are set to run out faster than expected
Labour's carbon targets amount to a cop-out
Our only hope lies in forging a new energy world order
Dick Cheney on Peak Oil
Thursday's keynote speech ... is an attempt to galvanise public support for tough measures to create a green economy, after recent setbacks including attacks on the science of climate change and stalled international negotiations ...UK facing 1970s-style oil shock ... Huhne
Drawing on research conducted for the previous government by Lord Stern, Huhne argued that a $100 a barrel price is the exact point at which the economics of climate change pivot so that it becomes cheaper for British consumers and businesses to invest in green technology than remain with the status quo ...
This is the moment to invest in green infrastructure, homes and transport, according to Huhne.
Fossil fuels are now the costly, high-risk option for energy: it is "crazy" not to prepare for a low-carbon future ...
But he warned that in the low-carbon economy, we will turn to electricity to heat our homes and charge our cars, leading to a doubling in demand for electricity by 2050.
This week, Steve Holliday, the chief executive of the National Grid, said he predicts the UK will need to increase its installed capacity of electricity generation from 75GW to 100GW by 2030 ...SteB1Guardian 03 Mar 2011
3 March 2011 3:52PM
Yes the oil prices and the vulnerability of oil supply should teach us a very important lesson about the need for a green economy. However, all this was very clear over 35 years ago. The need to re-evaluate our whole economy and our reliance on oil was crystal clear then. It is no accident that the much loved British sitcom "The Good Life", which ran 1975-78 had a theme of self-sufficiency - the very bedrock of proper green economies. This was a hot public topic at the time.
What we need to understand is why the hell we forgot about this lesson for the last 35 years. Why we went full steam ahead with an oil based economy and forgot about all the lessons we learned in the 1970s. After all the same lynchpin was involved in both. The regime in Saudi Arabia is the lynchpin that holds the whole world economy together. Imagine if there was a popular uprising in Saudi as there has been in other Middle Eastern countries. Imagine what that would do to world oil supplies and prices. We are far more reliant on that oil supply than we were 35 years ago.
Why are we so much in denial? Why did we forget all the things that became apparent in the 1970s? The situation never changed. We only forgot about these problems because the oil flowed freely again and the price was low. However, the essential problem was still there. We are a culture deeply in denial.2011 is 'pivotal' year for UK energy market
Oil nears $120 a barrel on Libya and Middle East fears
Solar industry steps up calls for feed-in tariff U-turn
U.S. Gulf Crudes Strengthen as WTI-to-Brent Spread Widens
World Economy Can Survive Oil Price Surge ... IMF
Break-even for low-carbon economy is $100 a barrel oil
UK government launches £5,000 electric car grant scheme
Energy firms must invest £200bn to meet UK targets
UK 'will struggle' to meet 2020 renewables goal
Chancellor promises to cut emissions by 34% by 2020
Britain's security: towards the dawn
A closer look at the [SDSR] new documents ... suggests that some of the “new thinking” is creeping in, quite possibly inserted by thoughtful civil servants rather than their political masters.
The strategic defence and security review, for example, seeks to “extend the remit of existing climate change governance structures to include management of the national security risks posed by the global impact of climate change and global competition for resources” (SDSR p.66); while the national-security strategy points to problems of endemic marginalisation, especially in Africa, and concludes that “compounded by other drivers such as climate change and resource scarcity, this increases the likelihood of conflict, instability and state failure” (NSS p.156).
These references signal that a wider vision of global-security issues has a shadowy presence at the heart of the state.
But the problem is twofold: that this understanding is peripheral to rather than driving the analysis, and that even where acknowledged the nature of the response to the problems is still too narrow.
The latter is revealed in the SDSR’s endorsement of a policy of “management of the national security risks posed by [them]”.
The recognition of the dangers of a socio-economically divided and environmentally constrained world is thus combined with a policy reaction that seeks to address the risks these trends pose to national security rather than working to prevent them becoming risks in the first place ...
openDemocracy 21 Oct 2010
Rich countries do not face a Malthusian crisis.The backlash begins against the world landgrab
"Land is not a commodity"
They face a shift in the terms of trade between country and city, a reversal of urban dominance since the industrial revolution.
We are on a thinner margin of food security, just as we are on a thinner margin of oil security.
But those who live in poor countries that rely on food imports most certainly did have a Malthusian moment in 2008 when bread riots swept Egypt, Indonesia, and a string of states in Africa.
Last week, 10 people died in riots in Mozambique, set off by Russia's grain export ban.
Wheat prices have doubled since June.
The World Bank said the number of people who go to bed hungry each night has risen from 830m to more than 1bn over the past three years ...
While the report endorses the Bank's open-door globalisation agenda, the sub-text dissents on every page.
"Large land acquisitions come at a high cost. The veil of secrecy that often surrounds these deals must be lifted," it said.
It warns of a "resource curse" that may enrich a small elite, leaving wreckage behind. Proposals are not properly screened. Peasants are forcibly displaced.
Communal grazing lands are closed off. Some investors manipulate opinion with a media blitz of false promises.
Nothing has been produced so far on almost 80pc of the land purchased. Benefits are often minimal, "even non-existent".
In Africa, the land rush is diverting effort from the core task of helping small farmers raise yields.
The Bank implicitly questions whether it is wise to divert half of the world's increased output of maize and wheat over the next decade into biofuels to meet government “mandates".
It will be another decade before the stalks and other inedible parts of plants can be used in bulk ...
Telegraph 12 Sept 2010 Haber Bosch Food Crunch
Job Losses Over Drilling Ban Fail to Materialize
"Global deepwater oil production is expected to double by 2030"
Deepwater oil drilling has played an increasingly important role in world energy markets in recent years, and that has not changed after several accidents in the waters of Australia, Britain, Mexico and the United States.
Since 2006, nearly half the total oil and gas reserves added worldwide have been in deepwater areas.
Six million barrels of oil a day, or 7 percent of total global production, are now produced in deepwater areas.
Global deepwater oil production is expected to double by 2030.
With the world becoming increasingly dependent on deepwater oil supplies, the BP spill has so far had a very limited effect on drilling around the world.
Britain has stepped up inspections of offshore rigs. Brazil has announced a safety review that will take a year to complete before it makes any regulatory changes related to its fast-growing offshore drilling industry. Angola has increased inspections.
But there are few signs of any slowdown in drilling.
In Norway, which already has strong regulations, the BP accident at first shook the industry.
An auction of about 100 offshore lots was initially postponed, but in the end, only six lots in environmentally sensitive areas were kept off limits.
In Nigeria and Ghana, some government officials have expressed caution about deepwater drilling, but there have been no significant delays ...
NYT 24 Aug 2010Confronting Collapse
The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the United States officials believe ...U.S. Identifies Vast Riches of Minerals in Afghanistan
"Afganistan ... has little or no history of environmental protection ... "
Welcome to the world of Bhopal and Deepwater Horizon, guys!
An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan could become the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys ...
The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government could also be amplified by the new wealth, particularly if a handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the president, gain control of the resources. Just last year, Afghanistan’s minister of mines was accused by American officials of accepting a $30 million bribe to award China the rights to develop its copper mine ...
Endless fights could erupt between the central government in Kabul and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral-rich districts.
Afghanistan has a national mining law, written with the help of advisers from the World Bank ...
At the same time, American officials fear resource-hungry China will try to dominate the development of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth ...
Another complication is that because Afghanistan has never had much heavy industry before, it has little or no history of environmental protection ...
NYT 13 June 2010
We must end our oil dependency, says chancellor
Chancellor Alistair Darling today warned that the UK must become less dependent on oil by replacing nuclear power stations and investing in renewable energy, as he described the soaring cost of crude as a "huge threat" to the economy. ...
... Darling said high oil prices are feeding inflationary pressures in Britain and around the world, and called for a rise in production as well as a raft of measures to lessen Britain's dependence on oil.
"If we we don't reduce our dependence on oil ... we will continue to expose ourselves to the uncertainty of the oil market," Darling said. "It is important that we reduce our dependency far more quickly than perhaps people thought was necessary."
The chancellor called on consumers to make their homes more energy efficient, for example through better insulation. But as well as paying more attention to renewable energy sources, he warned that it was important for the UK to "replace our nuclear power stations as quickly as we can". ...
Guardian 03 July 2008